A lot of recent hype has surrounded the $2.25 billion in Federal stimulus money that the Obama administration has granted California for a high speed rail system from LA to San Francisco.  Even with the potential of more stimulus money to come, California is starring down a massive $43-$45 billion dollar 10+ year project .  A key question in all of this is whether enough people are going to even use a high speed rail way system.

California politics suggest that both the major parties are in favor of a mass transit system that will connect the state.  However recent reports have suggested that California official's rail ridership projections are quite a bit overstated and predicated on unrealistic assumptions.  Not only that but recent memos that have leaked from these officials indicate that certain unfavorable numbers have been withheld from the public.

The transportation consulting firm retained by the state has indicted that they expect ridership to be about 45 million people daily by 2035.  But last month the Legislative Analyst’s Office released a report suggesting that those are not attainable numbers by 2035 and that there is not an adequate back up plan in the event of slow usage of the rail system.

The state is already in massive debt and can't afford to screw this up.  Obviously there is not enough transparency in the project nor is there any real risk assumption data.  If we are going to spend money in California for high speed rail transit, we should spend it first locally where people would actually get some use out of it before we turn it into a mammoth project.